【Brownbag】Dr. Cutoff: How I Learned to Love Preregistration
2026/01/09
研討會日期 : 2026-01-09
時間 : 12:10
主講人 : Professor Wei-Cheng Chen (陳為政)
地點 : Conference Room C103
演講者簡介 : Professor Wei-Cheng Chen received his Ph.D. in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2014. He is currently an Assistant Research Fellow at Academia Sinica. His research fields are Economics of Education and Microeconomics.
演講摘要 : This paper builds a simple economic model of peer review. A scholar first chooses research design, then after seeing data chooses analysis and persuasion. Design raises true quality but also makes later persuasion more costly, so it works as a commitment against spin. A reviewer observes different parts of this process under three policies: traditional review, binding preregistration with results review, and results-blind acceptance. Under smooth priors, stronger design lowers the optimal editorial cutoff, and preregistration weakly improves welfare relative to traditional review. We decompose the cutoff premium into signal inflation and signal jamming terms, both reduced by credible design. With binary priors that capture disruptive research, design can instead trigger a chilling effect and make preregistration or blind review welfare reducing.
