【Metrics Seminar】The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

  • 研討會日期 : 2024-03-26
  • 時間 : 14:30
  • 主講人 : Professor Andrey Vasnev
  • 地點 : Conference Room B110
  • 主持人 : Professor Chu-An Liu
  • 演講者簡介 : Professor Andrey Vasnev received his PhD from Tilburg University in 2006. He is currently an Associate Professor at the University of Sydney. His research interests are forecast combination in business, finance and economic applications.
  • 演講摘要 : In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.