演講者簡介 : Professor Rafael Guntin received his PhD from New York University in 2022. He is currently an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics at the University of Rochester. His research interests are Macroeconomics, International Macroeconomics, and Macro-Finance.
演講摘要 : This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of firms' rollover risk. I develop a heterogeneous-firms macroeconomic model with rollover crises emerging from coordination failures among creditors. Rollover crises are events in which a firm defaults because creditors fail to roll over its debt, but would have repaid otherwise. I assess the quantitative relevance of rollover crises by employing a modelbased identification strategy which argues that their incidence is informed by the observed distribution of firms' bankruptcy outcomes, and find that roughly half of corporate bankruptcy events are due to rollover crises. I then use the model to assess the aggregate implications of rollover risk for the U.S. economy and find that rollover risk can significantly amplify the impact of recessions. Lastly, I show that imperfectly targeted credit policies can mitigate rollover crises but can exacerbate firms' future debt overhang.
