演講者簡介 : Prof. François Salanié received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Toulouse in 1992. He is currently an INRAE Researcher at Toulouse School of Economics. His research interests are: Environmental Economics, Risk and Insurance, and Contract Theory.
演講摘要 : We develop a simple but general model of experimentation in which reaching untried levels of a stock variable may, after a stochastic delay, lead to a catastrophe. Hence, at any point in time a catastrophe might well be under way, due to past experiments. We show how to measure this legacy of the past from prior beliefs and the chronicle of stock levels. We characterize the optimal policy as a function of the legacy, and we show how it leads to a new protocol for planning that applies to a general class of problems, encompassing the study of pandemics or climate change. Several original policy predictions follow, e.g., experimentation can stop but resume later.
