Systemic Transformation: Preconditions and Alternative Approaches to Reform

  • 研討會日期 : 2003-08-08
  • 時間 : 15:00
  • 主講人 : Prof. Raphael Shen
  • 地點 : B棟110室
  • 演講者簡介 : Prof. Raphael Shen專事研究制度經濟與東歐轉型經濟,著有多本專書,近年更專注於中國大陸之經濟改革,並希望與本所進行學術交流。 Prof. Shen為Ph.D. in Economics,Michigan State University 現為University of Detroit/Mercy教授。
  • 演講摘要 : Former member-countries of the Warsaw Pact and the newly liberalized states (NIS) of the former USSR as well China began economic restructuring in one form or another in recent times. All these newly-liberalizing economies began implementing reform packages, varying only in scope, pace, consistency and the sequencing of policies, resulting in notably divergent results. Some of the reforming economies have witnessed encouraging results while numerous others are still mired in chaotic macro dislocation and micro passivity. Theorists advocating the "shock therapy" approach to systemic transformation are prone to showcase the relative successes in select countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In reality, however, widespread political, social and economic tensions and contradictions have resulted from these "shock" treatments. Such harmful effects consequently upon "shock therapy," however, have been conveniently overlooked by the theoretical purists. The September 2001's general elections in Poland, which have returned the Socialists to power, are ready evidence that deep-seated anomalies and widespread dysfunction do exist in an outwardly market-driven economy such as Poland. The proposition of this paper is that, prior to the inception of formulating a nation's economic reform programs, the existing conditions that prevailed at the time of their implementation must be taken into due account for the reform objectives to be realizable. Replacing the previously centralized planning-system with the free market principles in a previously centralized setting without due consideration given to prevailing conditions and background forces at work means that a reforming economy has no functional system in the concrete. The necessary economic infrastructure and the basic institutions of the market system take time to evolve and to develop in any reforming or developing economy. Without such necessary institutional and infrastructural support, a functional market system cannot emerge on a broad-based scenario.A given reforming nation’s history, culture, geography and other collateral background forces all must be taken into due consideration prior to formulating a reform blue-print. Each nation’s background forces at work are unique and distinct. Conveniently assuming these preconditions and forces away in order to impose a totally different economic system upon an emerging economy unavoidably results in unforeseen and undesirable consequences. This informal presentation focuses on the theories and merits/demerits of alternative approaches to systemic restructuring in diverse countries, with contrasting experiences in select countries undergoing reform.