A Structural Realist Interpretation of the Euler Equation Approach in Macroeconomics

  • 研討會日期 : 2002-02-22
  • 時間 : 14:00
  • 主講人 : Hsiang-Ke Chao
  • 地點 : B棟110室
  • 演講者簡介 : Mr. Hsiang-Ke Chao為Ph.D. in Economics, University of Amsterdam (expected 2002)。現正申請本所研究職務中 其主要研究領域為Methodology of Economics、Econometrics、 History of Economic Thought、Macroeconomics及Consumption Theory
  • 演講摘要 : Lucas’s critique of econometrics was that there was no invariant relationship in the large-scale macroeconometric models because expectations were not dealt with. Consequently, the large-scale macroeconometric models were regarded as being theoretically false, especially those built in the spirit of the Cowles Commission methodology. Soon after the old-fashioned consumption functions were effectively destroyed by Lucas, Robert Hall’s famous “random walk” paper constructed a consumption function that satisfies the Lucas critique. The random walk model is an exemplar of the Euler equation approach, referring to the first-order conditions that derive from the representative agent’s optimization behavior. This paper argues that the Euler equation approach focuses on the representation of structure just as much as the Cowles Commission econometrics to which Lucas objects. The structure that the Euler equation represent is what Hall calls “intertemporal preference ordering”. The history of the Euler equation approach provides an example consistent with structural realism claims in philosophy of science. The approach shows that, even though a particular consumption model does not fit the data, the Euler equation approach as a whole does not fail because the Euler equation successfully represents a kind of structure in the economy that economists are concerned with.