演講摘要 : History shows that governments may rethink their views of international macroeconomic cooperation after the emergence of a crisis. In consideration of the 15th anniversary (2008) of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis in 1992-93, this paper would like to know whether a single monetary policy implemented earlier can keep the U.K. stay in the process of European monetary integration. A counterfactual game simulation approach is used, and five scenarios are established to be compared with the actual historical records. Surprisingly, the final answer is negative.
