Threshold Inertia and Cost Advantage as Determinants of Direction of Trade
2008/11/25
研討會日期 : 2008-11-25
時間 : 14:00
主講人 : 董安琪副研究員
地點 : B棟110室
演講者簡介 : 董安琪教授為美國加州大學柏克萊分校(University of California-Berkeley)經濟學博士(1988)。目前為本所副研究員。其主要研究領域為經濟發展、產業政策、國際貿易及人口經濟。
演講摘要 : Direction of international trade is often based on the minimization of labor cost. Yet low wage rate alone is not an advantage, unless production efficiency is high. Given that export promotes learning, a low-wage country may be trapped in a vicious circle: low efficiency – high cost – no export – no learning. Historically observed, the vicious circle may be overcome by some unexpected events. Firstly, protective measures by importing countries against current exporter may cause the shift of import source, favoring low-efficiency supplier. Secondly, high-efficiency exporters may seek short-run survival by introducing low-efficiency exporters into the supply chain, against their own long-run interest. Thirdly, import substitution industries may face greater import competition because of protection. We illustrate the theme and paradoxes by footwear trade for the American market, the world’s largest footwear importer. An analytical model is presented to explain the trade performances of two episodes, namely Korea/Taiwan replacing Japan as the largest exporters to the US around 1970, and China replacing Korea/Taiwan around 1990. The results shed light on issues such as whether or not the appreciation of RMB hurts US producers and if protective measures are justifiable.
