【Trade Seminar】US-China Trade War, FDI, and Firm Growth
2026/08/18
研討會日期 : 2026-08-18
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Hoang Pham
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Sung-Ju Wu
演講者簡介 : Dr. Hoang Pham received his Ph.D. in Economics from Syracuse University in 2020. He is currently an Assistant Professor of Economics at Oregon State University. His research interests are International Trade, Labor Economics, Productivity Growth, and Applied Econometrics.
演講摘要 : We study how changes in U.S. tariff policy during the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war affected employment and firm growth in Vietnamese manufacturing industries, exploiting cross-industry variation in U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods as an exogenous demand shock to Vietnamese producers. Using data from the Vietnam Enterprise Survey over 2015–2024, matched to industry-level tariff exposure measures, we measure employment and productivity growth, estimate difference-in-differences models, and document several findings. Employment growth and entry occur mostly to foreign firms in Vietnam, and the employment share of foreign-owned firms increases following the US-China tariff changes, while there is little response from private domestic firms. In addition, we also measure Vietnamese firms' productivity changes over time and find some productivity responses to the US-China tariff changes (preliminary findings).
