【Macro Seminar】Trade Policy Surprises and U.S. Convenience Yields: Evidence from Prediction Markets
2026/05/19
研討會日期 : 2026-05-19
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Yinxi Xie (謝寅璽)
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Chun-Che Chi
演講者 : Dr. Yinxi Xie received his Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 2020. He is currently an Assistant Professor of Economics at Indiana University, Bloomington. His research interests are Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Behavioral Macro, International Finance, and Macro-Finance.
演講摘要 : We show that U.S. trade policy surprises account for a large share of the variation in U.S. Treasury convenience yields during the trade war of 2025. Using transaction-level data from Polymarket's tariff-related prediction markets, we construct a novel high-frequency measure of trade policy surprises and provide causal evidence that unexpected U.S. tariff increases reduce Treasury convenience yields across all maturities. While tariff increases could enhance Treasuries' safe-haven appeal by improving fiscal sustainability, we find that the uncertainty they generate in U.S. asset markets erodes Treasuries' convenience benefits and dominates the fiscal channel. Consistent with this mechanism, tariff surprises elevate market-wide uncertainty, depress equity prices persistently, and raise the perceived probability of a U.S. recession. We further show that the decline in convenience yields operates through distinct safety and liquidity channels across maturities.
