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黃柏鈞, 楊子霆

The Welfare Effects of Extending Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Re-employment and Unemployment Transfers (Journal of Public Economics, 2021)

This paper investigates the welfare effects of extending unemployment benefits by comparing thesearch effort responses to income transfers when employed (i.e. re-employment bonus) and unemployed(i.e. extended benefits). Specifically, we use administrative data on the universe of unemployment spellsin Taiwan from 2001 to 2011 and evaluate effects of providing a re-employment bonus and extendingunemployment benefits. Our results suggest that the provision of re-employment bonus increases job-finding hazards and results in the positive fiscal externality. The behavioral costs per New TaiwaneseDollar (NTD) of initial spending on bonuses is−0.61. In contrast, extending unemployment benefitsreduces the rate of unemployment exit and generates the negative fiscal externality. We integrate theestimated policy effects with a search model with liquidity constraints to identify the value of extendingunemployment benefits captured by the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between consumption whenunemployed and employed. We find that the estimated MRS of extending benefits is around 1.5 to 2.5— the marginal value of transfers when unemployed is about two times larger than that when employed.Finally, the marginal value of public fund for extending UI benefits is between 1.3 and 2, suggesting thewelfare gain from benefit extension is larger than its welfare cost by more than 30%

本文利用台灣就業保險的行政資料與regression kink (discontinuity) design,分析實行近年來台灣就業保險兩大變革的政策效果,第一個變革是自2003年起提供提早就業獎勵:失業勞工若在用完失業給付前找到工作,可領取未用完的失業給付之一半作為再就業獎勵,第二個改革是自2009年起將45歲以上的失業勞工的失業給付期限從六個月延長到九個月。我們的估計結果顯示提早就業獎勵政策減少失業給付領取天數約6%、減少失業期間約9%,但對再就業薪資沒有影響;另外,延長三個月的失業給付增加中高齡失業勞工的失業給付領取天數約39%、增加失業期間約14%,同樣地,延長失業給付對再就業薪資沒有顯著地影響。利用這些實證結果,我們分析延長失業給付對社會福利的影響。我們發現失業給付雖然增加失業給付的支出與減少租稅收入,但能提供失業勞工在失業期間消費上的支持,根據我們的推估,1元的失業給付支出帶來相當於2元的社會福利增益。

 

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