【Macro Seminar】Population Aging and Business Succession: A Macroeconomic Perspective
2026/03/10
研討會日期 : 2026-03-10
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Kozo Ueda
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Han Yang
演講者簡介 : Professor Kozo Ueda received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oxford in 2006. He is currently a Professor at Waseda University. His research interests are Monetary Policy and Inflation.
演講摘要 : This paper studies how population aging shapes firm dynamics and macroeconomic outcomes through business succession. Using large-scale Japanese firm-level panel data, we document systematic age transition patterns in succession, an inverted U-shape in performance with respect to managerial age, and the causal effects of succession on firm outcomes. Building on these facts, we develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and life-cycle managerial ability. The model shows that declining population growth reduces succession but raises average managerial ability and strengthens firm selection. Quantitative analysis suggests that, despite lower aggregate output, per capita output increases under demographic decline.
