【Macro/Empirical Seminar】Different Consumption Responses to Equivalent Changes in the Real Interest Rate
2025/12/04
研討會日期 : 2025-12-04
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Frank Heinemann
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Tsung-Hsien Li
演講者簡介 : Professor Frank Heinemann received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bonn in 1995. He is currently a Professor at Technische Universität Berlin. His research interests are Monetary Macroeconomics, Financial Crises, and Coordination Games.
演講摘要 : We study how individuals adjust consumption in response to changes in the real interest rate using a large, preregistered, within-subject survey experiment on a representative sample of the German population. Respondents evaluate hypothetical scenarios in which the real interest rate rises by five percentage points through either an increase in the nominal interest rate or an equivalent decline in expected inflation. While classic intertemporal choice models predict identical responses across these scenarios, we find a clear asymmetry: respondents plan sizable cuts in consumption, higher saving, and lower borrowing when nominal rates increase, yet adjust these margins much less when inflation falls. Differences in perceived wealth effects may contribute to this asymmetry, but they cannot fully explain it. Respondents appear to internalize the wealth consequences of nominal rate changes more readily than those of disinflation. The latter is also associated with more contradictory choices, for example reporting higher spending and higher saving while leaving borrowing unchanged. Together, these findings suggest that respondents more readily internalize the consequences of nominal interest rate changes than of disinflation, which has implications for the design and communication of monetary policy.
