【Micro Seminar】Elections with Opinion Polls: Information Acquisition and Aggregation
2025/11/18
研討會日期 : 2025-11-18
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Tetsuya Hoshino
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Gunhaeng Lee
演講者簡介 : Professor Tetsuya Hoshino received his Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University in 2019. He is currently an Associate Professor at Kyoto University. His research interests are Microeconomics and Game Theory.
演講摘要 : We study elections with opinion polls, which contain information about their likely margins. Rationally inattentive voters acquire costly information about both the alternatives and the polls. We characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium with information acquisition. Our main results are: (i) the probability of making the correct choice is independent of electorate size, voters' prior, and voting rules; and (ii) elections become closer as electorate size grows. Furthermore, elections with polls achieve a higher probability of making the correct choice than those without. We offer novel implications for regression discontinuity designs in close elections.
