【Macro Seminar】From Prudence to Excess: Measuring the Coordination Failure in Reserve Accumulation
2025/09/22
研討會日期 : 2025-09-22
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Hidehiko Matsumoto
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Chun-Che Chi
演講者簡介 : Professor Hidehiko Matsumoto received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland in 2018. He is currently an Associate Professor at Keio University. His research interests are International Finance, Macroeconomics, Financial Crisis, and Economic Growth.
演講摘要 : Reserve accumulation is often viewed as a domestic precautionary policy aimed at preserving macroeconomic resilience. We show, however, that when many countries build reserves simultaneously, this collective action depresses the global risk-free rate and induces greater risk-taking by the financial sector in advanced economies. This paper studies how optimal reserve accumulation in emerging markets changes once these global financial spillovers are incorporated. Using a two-region dynamic general equilibrium model, we compare three settings: a decentralized equilibrium, an uncoordinated planner for a single emerging economy, and a coordinated planner for all emerging economies. The uncoordinated planner accumulates more reserves than the coordinated planner because it overlooks how higher reserves abroad increase global financial risk, which in turn feeds back to emerging markets. Both planners hold more reserves than decentralized agents to preserve macroeconomic stability, but only the coordinated approach balances the self-insurance motive against the amplification of risk through the global banking sector.
