【Job Talk】Quantifying the Effects of Commodity Booms on Regional and Sectoral Outcomes
2025/03/10
研討會日期 : 2025-03-10
時間 : 10:30
主講人 : Ms. Sandra Kurniawati
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Wen-Tai Hsu
演講者簡介 : Ms. Kurniawati is expected to receive her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Mannheim in 2025. Her research fields are International Trade, Development Economics, Economic Geography, and Labor Economics. She is applying for a position of the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica now.
演講摘要 : Commodity demand shocks in the global market can have persistent effects on economic outcomes of commodity-exporting countries. In this paper, I study the regional and sectoral effects of commodity booms. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of commodity booms, I develop a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that accounts for sectoral linkages, internal migration, and externalities in manufacturing sectors. I calibrate the model to the Indonesian economy and simulate the response to the commodity boom that the country experienced in the 2000-2011 period. I find that while the commodity boom increases aggregate GDP during the boom period, it reduces long-term welfare. The impact is heterogeneous across regions. While the lagging regions gain from the commodity boom, industrialized regions experienced a decline in employment and GDP. The surge in commodity exports leads to a decline in manufacturing GDP in both regions. I also show that dynamic externalities in manufacturing can amplify the long-term effects of commodity booms on manufacturing GDP. Overall, the counterfactual analysis indicates that commodity booms can significantly alter the spatial distribution of economic activities and may hinder industrialization in commodity-exporting countries.
