【Macro Seminar】Structural Change in the Global Economy
2024/07/04
研討會日期 : 2024-07-04
時間 : 13:30
主講人 : Prof. Hayato Kato
地點 : B110 會議室
主持人 : Professor Han Yang
演講者簡介 : Professor Hayato Kato received his PhD from Hitotsubashi University in 2016. He is an Associate Professor at Osaka University. His research interests are International Trade, Economic Geography, and International Taxation.
演講摘要 : In the last few decades, advanced countries have witnessed a significant decline in their manufacturing sectors along with emerging economies being integrated into the global economy. Even had such globalization not been for, the fall in manufacturing might have been inevitable because of structural change, a stylized fact of economic growth that economies shift from agriculture to manufacturing and then to service. What role does structural change play in determining the impact of globalization? To address the question, we develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model of trade with capital accumulation. Our model features nonhomothetic CES preferences, allowing consumers to present varying income elasticities of demand across sectors. We bring the model to the data for the world economy, encompassing three sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, and service) and 24 countries. We calibrate the model's fundamentals, including trade costs and productivity, and solve the model for the transition path. By applying counterfactual trade costs for different sectors, productivity levels, and preferences to the model, we discuss how these factors collectively shape structural change and its interaction with international trade in advanced countries. Specifically, we show that international trade has heterogeneous impacts on declining manufacturing across countries, providing new insights into the impacts of globalization on advanced economies.
