演講者簡介 : Professor Miguel León-Ledesma received his PhD from the University of La Laguna in 1999. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Kent. His research interests are in the areas of macroeconomics, economic growth, international economics, and applied econometrics.
演講摘要 : We develop a model where temporary non-technology shocks can lead to permanent changes in the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The model features a matching processes between basic researchers, product developers, and the stock of knowledge of the economy. In this context, search externalities generate vicious and virtuous cycles in R&D. The model has a unique equilibrium path but multiple balanced growth paths (BGPs) with different growth rates. After a deep or long-lived shock, the economy can transit between these BGPs, generating “superhysteresis” in TFP. We illustrate the quantitative properties of the model in the context of the Japanese growth slowdown and show that it can explain well the TFP growth decline after the financial crisis in the 1990s. The simultaneous occurrence of demographic shocks and a persistent but temporary financial crisis gave rise to a “wretched coincidence” resulting in the growth slowdown.
