【Job talk】Foreign Profit Shifting and The Welfare Responses to The US–China Trade War: Evidence from Manufacturers in Vietnam
2023/12/28
研討會日期 : 2023-12-28
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Mr. Sung-Ju Wu (吳松儒)
地點 : Conference Room B110
主持人 : Professor Han Yang
演講者簡介 : Mr. Wu is expected to receive his Ph.D. in Economics from Duke University in 2024. His research fields are International Trade, Development, and Political Economy. He is applying for a position of the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica now.
演講摘要 : This paper studies the welfare implications of the US–China trade war in Vietnam when foreign-owned manufacturers repatriate their profits. Utilizing an enterprise survey in Vietnam, I provide novel evidence that Vietnam’s positive responses in input sourcing, product export, and employment in 2017–2019 are driven mainly by foreign-owned manufacturers, especially Chinese manufacturers. To further understand the welfare gains of the trade war episode, I develop and estimate a quantitative model of trade participation with foreign ownership, where foreign-owned manufacturers do not retain their profits in the host country. A foreign demand shock to Vietnam of a magnitude similar to that of the trade war raises the real expenditure in the model by 5 percent, predominantly from an increase in labor income.
