演講者簡介 : Professor Kwanho Shin received his PhD from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1994. He is currently a Professor at Korea University. His main research areas are Macroeconomics and Monetary and Financial Economics.
演講摘要 : We analyze determinants of economic resilience, defined as the tendency of economies to bounce back from negative shocks. Deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, consistent with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. In contrast, longer recessions are associated with weaker recoveries, as if more extensive destruction of human capital and other hysteresis effects limit resilience. Trade openness and exchange rate flexibility, which facilitate the substitution of external demand when domestic demand is weak, are positively associated with resilience, as are a strong current account balance and ample foreign reserves. Financial openness and rapid private credit growth in the preceding expansion contribute negatively, reflecting their legacy of financial problems.
