【Macro Seminar】On (Un)Congested Roads:A Quantitative Analysis of Infrastructure Investment Efficiency using Truck GPS Data
2024/02/21
研討會日期 : 2024-02-21
時間 : 10:30
主講人 : Professor Zheng (Michael) Song (宋錚)
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Zheng Song received his PhD from Stockholm University in 2005. He is currently the Wei Lun Professor of Economics at Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research interests are Macroeconomics, Chinese Economy, and Political Economy.
演講摘要 : This study aims to quantify the gains from investments in a transportation network, where the elasticity of driving time to traffic (“congestion elasticity”) may differ across roads. We use high-frequency GPS data from half a million Chinese trucks to measure traffic flow and uncover the congestion elasticity heterogeneity in China’s city-to-city road links. We find that 34% of the links are uncongested and 28% are associated with a small elasticity. In contrast, using real-time traffic data for highways in England, we find that almost all are associated with a large congestion elasticity. We next incorporate congestion elasticity heterogeneity into a quantitative general equilibrium trade model with optimal route choices and structurally estimate the model. We find the returns to be highly unequal in China, and the heterogeneity in congestion elasticity can account for more than half of the dispersion. Our findings suggest a severe misallocation of road investments in China.
