【Brownbag】The Impact of US-China Trade War on Taiwan's International Trade
研討會日期 : 2023-12-22
時間 : 12:10
主講人 : Professor Loretta Fung
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Loretta Fung received her PhD from the University of California, Davis in 2002. She is currently a Professor at National Tsing Hua University. Her research interests are Micro Responses to Exchange Rate Movements, International Trade and Investment, and Economic Development.
演講摘要 : This paper investigates the impact of 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Taiwan's international trade. The effects of US tariff on imports from China are assessed in two dimensions: direct effects on Taiwan's exports of products that are subject to the tariff; and indirect effects on the upstream products whose downstream products are subject to the tariff. Using Taiwanese customs data at the firm-product-country level combined with firm corporate income tax files, our findings suggest the following. First, there are positive direct effects on exports to the US, indicating a trade diversion effect. Second, the indirect effects are positive on Taiwan's exports to the Southeast Asia, implying restructure of global value chains that directs exports of intermediate products. Third, we find that firm response to trade war tariffs depends on prior export experience and firm size.