演講者簡介 : Professor Wan-Jung Cheng received her Ph.D. in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2017. She is currently an Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica. Her research interests are Macroeconomics, Macro Labor and Growth and Development.
演講摘要 : If international trade is strictly trade in intermediate goods, would the common presumption, that small, less developed economies (the South) lose from trade wars still be true? We address this question by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the North and South trade technology-embodied intermediate goods. The presence of extensive margin effects yields a novel channel of scale-scope trade-off: The South counters the losses from a trade war in the volume and value of trade (scale) with an upward movement along the value chain (scope), thereby mitigating the detrimental effects of the trade war. Using calibration we find that for our benchmark model the reduction in the volumes and values of trade caused by a trade war is mitigated, and the scale-scope trade-off induces a moderately higher average productivity and aggregate technology used by the South.
