演講者簡介 : Professor Oprea received his Ph.D. in Economics from George Mason University in 2006. He is currently the Maxwell C. and Mary Pellish Chair of Economics and the Director of the Laboratory for the Integration of Theory and Experiments (LITE) at the University of California, Santa Barbara. His research interests are Experimental economics, bounded rationality, behavioral economics, dynamics, economic theory.
演講摘要 : We provide evidence that the signature empirical patterns of prospect theory, are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic monetary payoffs that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find e.g. apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without loss. Across subjects, the appearance of these anomalies in deterministic evaluations strongly predicts their appearance in true lotteries. These findings suggest that much of the behavior described by prospect theory is driven by the complexity of evaluating lotteries, rather than by risk or risk preferences.
