【AEW webinar】Exposure(s) to Trade and Earnings Dynamics: Evidence from the Collapse of Finnish-Soviet Trade & Bound by Ancestors: Immigration, Credit Frictions, and Global Supply Chain Formation

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• 研討會日期 : 2022-10-27
• 時間 : 08:30
• 主講人 : Professor Jonathan Vogel
• 地點 : Register and join online
• 演講者簡介 : Professor Jonathan Vogel received his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in 2007. He is currently a Professor at University of California, Los Angeles. His research interests are international trade, immigration, inequality, and spatial competition.
• 演講摘要 : How do local labor markets shape the response to trade shocks? Do workers whose employers are more exposed to negative trade shocks fare equally poorly across markets or is there something distinct about their experience in the most negatively affected markets? To make progress on these questions, we study the impact of a massive trade shock—the collapse of the Finnish-Soviet bilateral trade agreement—on the earnings trajectories of Finnish workers. Combining newly-digitized data on Finnish firms’ licensed exports to the USSR with matched employer-employee data, we construct measures of both worker and market exposure to the USSR shock. We find that more exposed workers within a labor market experience systematically lower earnings after the shock and that the negative effect of worker exposure is persistently larger in more exposed markets, a form of local scarring. We develop a simple model of labor market dynamics with wage rigidity that rationalizes the previous empirical results and generates new theoretical predictions about the dynamic response of employment and wages, all broadly consistent with the Finnish experience.
• AEW Working Paper : Bound by Ancestors: Immigration, Credit Frictions, and Global Supply Chain Formation
• Working paper 演講者簡介 : Professor Park received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the National Taiwan University. His research interests are international trade, macroeconomics, and urban economics.
• Working paper 演講摘要 : This paper shows that the ancestry composition shaped by century-long immigration to the US can explain the current structure of global supply chain networks. Using an instrumental variable strategy, combined with a novel dataset that links firm-to-firm global supply chain information with a US establishment database and historical migration data, we find that co-ethnic networks formed by immigration have a positive causal impact on global supply chain relationships between foreign countries and US counties. Such a positive impact not only exists in conventional supplier-customer relationships but also extends to strategic partnerships and trade in services. Examining causal mechanisms, we find that the positive impact is stronger for counties in which more credit-constrained firms are located, and such a stronger effect becomes even more pronounced for foreign firms located in countries with weak contract enforcement. Collectively, the results suggest that co-ethnic networks serve as social collateral to overcome credit constraints and facilitate global supply chain formation.