【CESS】To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro

  • 研討會日期 : 2022-08-09
  • 時間 : 14:30
  • 主講人 : Professor Ping Wang (王平), Washington University in St. Louis
  • 地點 : Online or Conference room B110
  • 演講者簡介 : Professor Wang received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Rochester in 1987. He is currently the Seigle Family Distinguished Professor of Arts and Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, Research Associate at the NBER, and Senior Research Fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the ABFER of the National University of Singapore. His major research areas include Growth and Development, Money and Macroeconomics, Economic Theory, and Spatial/Health Economics.
  • 演講摘要 : Allowing migration activity as an integral part of demographic transition and economic development, we construct a dynamic competitive migration equilibrium framework with rural agents heterogeneous in skills and fertility preferences to establish a locational quantity-quality trade-off of children and explore its macroeconomic consequences. We show and characterize a mixed migration equilibrium where high-skilled rural agents with low fertility preferences always migrate to cities, low-skilled with high fertility preferences always stay, and only an endogenously determined fraction of high-skilled/high fertility preferences or low-skilled/low fertility preferences ends up moving. By calibrating our model to fit the data from China whose migration and population control policies offer a rich array of issues for quantitative investigation, we find strong interactions - the locational quantity-quality trade-off-between fertility and migration decisions, as well as between these decision-makings and changes in migration and population control policies. We conclude that overlooking the locational quantity-quality trade-off may lead to nonnegligible biases in assessing the implications and effectiveness of government policies.