演講者簡介 : Ms. Goswami will receive her Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Irvine in 2020. Her research interests are International Trade, Labor Economics, and International Macroeconomics. She is applying for a position of the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica now.
演講摘要 : This paper provides evidence on the short-run and long-run distributional effects of tariff shocks on employment in the United States. Using monthly data on tariffs and employment, I find that in the period of January 2017 to March 2019, commuting zones more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs experienced a decline in employment growth, whereas U.S. import tariffs had no immediate effect on employment growth. I also study the employment effects of a hypothetical trade war between the United States and China by calculating counterfactual employment changes under three different retaliation scenarios and find that had the U.S. imposed tariffs in the 1991-2007 period on all products, the large job-destroying effect of the ‘China shock’ would not have occurred, irrespective of the retaliation strategy pursued by China. However in the post-recession period of 2010-2016, the ‘China shock’ no longer exists and therefore U.S. import tariffs would not have had a job-creating effect. This result corroborates the findings of the short-run analysis.
