The Role of On-the-Job Search in Hiring Dynamics and Matching Efficiency: A Bayesian-Estimated DSGE Model
2018/01/24
研討會日期 : 2018-01-24
時間 : 11:00
主講人 : Mr. Jhih-Chian Wu (吳致謙)
主持人 : Professor Chu-An Liu
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Mr. Wu will receive his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 2018. His research fields are Macroeconomics, Labor Economics and Applied Time Series Econometrics. He is applying for a position of the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica now.
演講摘要 : Conventional DSGE models that include labor search-and-matching frictions assume that only unemployed workers are job seekers. Without taking the behavior of employed job seekers into account, these standard models overestimate the true magnitude of fluctuations in the entire population of job seekers. Hence, this paper proposes augmenting the standard DSGE model with on-the-job search by employed workers. Using Bayesian estimation methods, I show that this augmented model not only well explains the 25 percent decline in hiring that was seen during the Great Recession, but also successfully predicts the subsequent actual five-year-long recovery period of hiring. In contrast, the standard models, which do not incorporate employed workers’ on-the-job searches, fail to explain the sharp declines in hiring seen during the Great Recession and the slow job recovery afterward. Furthermore, I find that if on-the-job-search is incorporated in the model, the decline in matching efficiency of the unemployed workers would explain 54 percent of the increase in U.S. unemployment during the Great Recession, as opposed to 27 percent suggested by the standard DSGE models without on-the-job search.
