News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries
2016/10/04
研討會日期 : 2016-10-04
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Liugang Sheng
主持人 : Professor Cheng-Ying Yang
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Sheng received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Davis in 2012. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research fields are International Trade, International Macro, Economic Development, and Applied Econometrics.
演講摘要 : This paper explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ̶ the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first analyze the effects of a discovery in a two-sector small open economy model with a resource sector. We then estimate the effects of giant oil and gas discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil or gas discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly and remain low for a sustained period of time.
