Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections
2016/03/01
研討會日期 : 2016-03-01
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Natsuki Arai
主持人 : Professor Cheng-Ying Yang
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Arai received his Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University at 2014. He is currently an Assistant Professor at National Chengchi University. His research fields are Applied Macroeconomics, Forecasting, and Time-Series Econometrics.
演講摘要 : Since 2007, FOMC policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next three years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation, but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC's unemployment projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases.
