Macroeconomics at the Zero Lower Bound: Quasi-Fiscal Monetary Policy vs. Quasi-Monetary Fiscal Policy
2015/06/23
研討會日期 : 2015-06-23
時間 : 10:30
主講人 : Professor Paul McNelis
主持人 : Professor Cheng-Ying Yang
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor McNelis received his Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. He holds the Robert Bendheim Chair in Economic and Financial Policy in the Department of Finance, Graduate School of Business Administration, Fordham University. His current research is on applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms for predicting exchange rate and asset-price instabilities, for assessing the effects of alternative monetary regimes on macroeconomic adjustment following external shocks, and solving real business cycle models with inequality constraints.
演講摘要 : This paper assesses adjustment at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in an economy incorporating financial frictions and nominal price stickiness. We examine adjustment under recurring productivity and recurring financial-sector shocks under three alternative policies: removal of the zero lower bound (by allowing negative rates), quantitative easing policies at the ZLB (quasi-fiscal monetary policy), and the use of endogenous tax rates on consumption and labor income at the ZLB (quasi-monetary fiscal policy). Under a balanced budget rule, the quasi-monetary fiscal regime will force large swings in government spending, under both types of shocks, but is much more effective, relative to the quasi-fiscal monetary regime, at stabilizing consumption and investment during prolonged crisis periods. Our results show that QE policies closely mimic the paths that would be generated if nominal interest rates were not constrained by the zero lower bound.
