Closing the Small Economy Model: A Demographic Approach
2015/06/23
研討會日期 : 2015-06-23
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Stephen J. Turnovsky
主持人 : Professor Been-Lon Chen
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Turnovsky received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1968. He holds the Ford and Louisa Van Voorhis Professorship of Economics at University of Washington. His research fields are Macroeconomics, International Macroeconomics, Public Economics and Economic Growth.
演講摘要 : Closing the small open economy model has been a stumbling block in studying the dynamic evolution of such models. The typical procedure of equating the after-tax return on traded bonds to the rate of time preference involves imposing an arbitrary and constraining knife-edge condition. This paper replaces the infinitely-lived representative agent framework with a plausible demographic structure. This yields a well-behaved macrodynamic equilibrium without imposing any knife-edge conditions. The equilibrium dynamics generated by the Rectangular survival function, characteristic of the Samuelson-Diamond model, closely track those corresponding to an empirically-estimated survival function. However, the Blanchard survival function tracks the data poorly in terms of absolute levels, while the closeness of its relative dynamics (following a structural change) depends on the source of the structural change.
