Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective
2014/12/19
研討會日期 : 2014-12-19
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Gary Hansen
主持人 : Professor Pei-Ju Liao
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Hansen received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Minnesota, in 1986. He is currently a Professor at Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles. His research fields are Macroeconomic Theory and Policy, Monetary Economics and Aggregate Labor Economics.
演講摘要 : Past government spending in Japan is currently imposing a significant fiscal burden that is reflected in a net debt to output ratio near 150 percent. In addition, the aging of Japanese society implies that public expenditures and transfers payments relative to output are projected to continue to rise until at least 2050. In this paper we use a standard growth model to measure the size of this burden in the form of additional taxes required to finance these projected expenditures and to stabilize government debt. The fiscal adjustment needed is very large, in the range of 30-40% of total consumption expenditures. Using a distorting tax such as the consumption tax or the labor income tax requires either tax to rise to unprecedented highs, although the former is much less distorting than the latter. The extremely high tax rates we find highlight the importance of considering alternatives that attenuate the projected increases in public spending and/or enlarge the tax base.
