Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
2014/11/25
研討會日期 : 2014-11-25
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor An-Chi Tung
主持人 : Professor Shi-Shu Peng
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Tung received her Ph.D. in Economics from UC Berkeley in 1988. She is currently an Associate Research Fellow at Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica. Her research fields are Economic Growth and Development, Industrial Organization and International Economics.
演講摘要 : Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
