Identification of a Duopoly: A Real Options Approach
2014/09/09
研討會日期 : 2014-09-09
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Piin-hueih Chiang
主持人 : Professor Yu-Chin Hsu
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Chiang received her Ph.D. in Economics from University of Texas at Austin in 2013. She is currently an Assistant Professor at National Chengchi University. Her research fields are Microeconomic Theory, and Industrial Organization.
演講摘要 : This paper non-parametrically identifies a duration model in which the two asymmetric potential entrants contemplate on when to enter a new market. The game theoretical part of the paper (i) shows that the leader’s entrance may have occurred because its optimal entry time has arrived rather than being triggered by the fear of being preempted and (ii) solves the puzzle why the ``disadvantaged” firm preempts and becomes the leader of the new market. I non-parametrically identify the joint distribution of the unobserved investment cost and find the probability of the first entrant being triggered by preemption. Given the observation of the first entrant, the identification of the joint distribution of the investment costs allows me to predict the likelihood of observing the second entrant.
