Confidence and Overconfidence in Political Economy
2012/09/25
研討會日期 : 2012-09-25
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Erik Snowberg
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Erik Snowberg received his Ph.D. in Business from Stanford University in 2008. He is currently serving as Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology. His research field is in political economics and behavioral economics.
演講摘要 : This paper studies the role of overconfidence in political behavior. We posit a simple model of overconfidence in beliefs. The model predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. We test these predictions using novel survey data that allows for the measurement of overconfidence, and find that the predicted relationships are statistically and substantively important.
