Investment Demand and Housing Prices in an Emerging Economy
2012/10/09
研討會日期 : 2012-10-09
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Ming-Chi Chen
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Ming-Chi Chen received his Ph.D. in Land Economy from Cambridge University. He is currently serving as Professor of Finance at National Sun Yat-sen University. His research field is in real estate finance and economics, real estate securitization, applied econometrics, and project financing.
演講摘要 : This paper hypothesizes that the increase in money supply induced by rapid economic growth leads to strong investment demand in the Taiwanese housing market. We use a threshold model and confirm money supply as the key threshold variable. When the growth rate of money supply is below the model’s estimated threshold value, household number, income, and user cost of housing capital are significant variables. It appears that service demand and housing supply are essential in creating the linear movement of housing prices. However, when the growth rate of money supply exceeds the threshold value, stock prices and the inflation rate become important. These findings suggest that non-linear movement of housing prices is primarily driven by investment demand.
