Monetary Growth Targeting, the Taylor Rule and Share-Market Stability: The Taiwanese Experience
2012/05/08
研討會日期 : 2012-05-08
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Paul D. McNelis
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Paul D. McNelis received his Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University in 1974. He is currently serving as Robert Bendheim Professor of Economics and Financial Policy at Fordham University. His research field is in macroeconomic adjustment of emerging markets, computational methods for dynamic models, hypothesis testing and forecasting with nonlinear models, political macroeconomics of global imbalances and Bayesian estimation of structural models.
演講摘要 : The paper applies counterfactual simulation experiments based on Bayesian estimates of an open-economy DSGE model of Taiwan. We assess the monetary targeting framework of the Central Bank of the Republic of China relative to a pure inflation targeting Taylor rule. We find that welfare changes may be positive or negative, but very small, at most less than 0.6 percent of consumption. However, switching to a Taylor rule leads to significantly greater volatility in Tobin’s Q. Given the importance of share-price stability for overall financial market performance, monetary targeting emerges as the more prudential framework for monetary policy.
