Over- and under-sensitivity to Rare Events: Distinct Processes or Noisy Retrievers?
2012/01/31
研討會日期 : 2012-01-31
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Davide Marchiori
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Davide Marchiori received his Ph.D. in Economics and Management from University of Trento in 2010. He is currently serving as Guest Assistant Professor of Economics at National Chengchi University. His research field is in behavioral and experimental economics, agent-based modeling, computational economics and quantitative methods for economics.
演講摘要 : Previous research documents two pairs of inconsistent reactions to rare events: (1) Studies of probability judgments reveal conservatism, which implies overestimation of rare events, and overconfidence, which implies underestimation of rare events. (2) Studies of choice behavior reveal overweighting of rare events in one-shot tasks, and the opposite bias in decisions from experience. The current analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the coexistence and relative importance of the four biases can be captured with simple models that share the assumption that judgments and decisions are “best replies” to small and noisy samples of past experiences.
