Animal Spirits, Rational Bubbles and Unemployment in an Old-Keynesian Model
2011/11/15
研討會日期 : 2011-11-15
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Roger E. A. Farmer
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Roger E. A. Farmer received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Western Ontario in 1982. He is currently serving as Distinguished Professor and Chair of the Economics Department at University of California, Los Angeles. His research field is in macroeconomic theory and monetary theory.
演講摘要 : This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy in which any unemployment rate may be a steady-state equilibrium and every equilibrium unemployment rate is associated with a different value for the price of assets. To select an equilibrium, I construct a theory in which asset price bubbles are caused by the self-fulfilling animal spirits of market participants, selected by a belief function. In contrast to my earlier work on this topic, asset prices may be unbounded. All of the actors in my model have rational expectations and the asset price bubbles that occur are individually rational, even though the equilibria of the model are socially inefficient. My work opens the door for a new class of theories in which market psychology, captured by the belief function, plays an independent role in helping us to understand economic crises.
