The Announcement Effects: Taxation of Real Estate Capital Gains in Seoul
2011/07/05
研討會日期 : 2011-07-05
時間 : 02:30
主講人 : Professor Patric H. Hendershott
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Patric H. Hendershott got his Ph.D. in Economics from Purdue University. He is currently serving as Professor of Property at Business School at University of Aberdeen. His research field is in house prices, valuing and pricing leases, workings of commercial real estate markets, household formations, and homeownership.
演講摘要 : This study examines the housing market's reaction to public announcements of capital gains tax increases. Empirical research on the effects of capital gains tax announcements has been limited. We assess whether, during the period following the announcement of the capital gains tax increase in the Seoul housing market but before the increase took effect, there was an increased gains taking by investors with large unrealized capital gains. Because prices were rising rapidly during this time period, we also examine whether these investors had an incentive to delay or postpone their gains taking until it was clear that the new capital gains tax rates would go into effect. We test for announcement effects using both a spatial equilibrium model and a threefactor Vector Autoregression model. The results are similar. The initial capital gains tax increase announcement had little or no impact, while the realization that the higher rates would definitely go into effect lowered house prices in the remaining nine yet-to-be-designated districts by roughly ten percent. We further find that these strictly negative price movements during the announcement period were followed by significantly positive price movements during the post announcement period.
