Exchange Rate Movements and Firm Dynamics in Canadian Retail Industries
2011/01/04
研討會日期 : 2011-01-04
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : Professor Loretta Fung
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Loretta Fung got her Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Davis in 2002. She is currently serving as Assistant Professor of Department of Economics at National Tsing Hua University. Her research field is in micro responses to exchange rate movements, international trade and investment, productivity analysis, and economic development.
演講摘要 : This paper uses firm-level data to estimate the effects of real exchange rate movements on Canadian retail firms. As consumers living close to the Canada-US border are able to shop on either side of the border, fluctuations in the price of Canadian goods and services relative to U.S. goods, including changes caused by exchange rate movements, can affect the demand faced by retailers. This, in turn, can impact firm survival, size and profitability. Using comprehensive data on Canadian retail firms from 1986 to 1997, a period characterized by large appreciation and then depreciation of the Canadian dollar, we are able to examine not only the exchange rate effects on retail firms overall but also the effects on firms in different industry groups. We focus on three industry groups which are likely to be affected by cross-border shopping: food services and accommodation, grocery stores and gasoline stations, and apparel and general retail. Our findings show mixed effects of real exchange rate movements on firm survival. However, for two different measures of size, (sales and employment), and for profitability, our results indicate adverse effects of a real Canadian currency appreciation. We also find that these effects diminish as firms are located farther away from the border and the rate at which the effects fall differs across industries and measures of firm performance.
