演講者簡介 : Pei-Chien Lin got her Ph.D. in Applied Economics from University of Minnesota. She is currently serving as Assistant Professor of Industrial Economics at Tamkang University. Her research field is in economic growth, applied economics and international trade and development.
演講摘要 : In this paper we present evidence that financial volatility exerts a strong and direct negative impact on growth. By employing the augmented difference-to-difference framework of Rajan and Zingales (1998) on the cross-country and cross-industry data developed by Ciccone and Papaioannou (2009) and complemented with the Financial Development and Structure Database of Beck, Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine (2010), we show that financial volatility, measured as the standard deviation of the growth of private credit, has negative impact on the growth of industries that are more external financially dependent. This finding is robust to various determinants of growth controlled, different indices for the development of stock markets additionally considered, alternative measures of financial volatility employed, and other macroeconomic volatility incorporated, thereby providing strong empirical evidence that the stability of financial development, compared to the promotion of financial liberalization, is relatively more important for long-run economic growth. This outcome has significant policy implication on financial supervision.
