Do Political Parties Create Business Cycles? A Case in G-7 Countries
2009/08/25
研討會日期 : 2009-08-25
時間 : 14:30
主講人 : 印永翔 教授
地點 : B110
演講者簡介 : 印永翔教授為Ph.D. in Economics，University of Kentucky (1998)。現為中山大學中山學術研究所教授兼所長。其主要研究領域為國際金融、國際經濟學、貨幣銀行學及總體經濟學。
演講摘要 : This paper explores different possible factors that have impacted business cycle synchronization across industrialized countries in the past quarter century. We employ a comprehensive model that includes as the main determinants of output co-movements not only trade and financial integration, but also similarities of economic policies and political preferences across countries. Focusing on the G-7 countries from 1980 to 2007, our main finding is that economic policies and the political environment have strong influences on business cycles in each country and its correlations across countries. Consistent with our a priori expectations, increases in exchange rate variability and inflation differentials reduce cross-country interdependencies. We also find that having differing political parties between two countries lowers business cycles correlations, but only when we allow for partisan effects to dissipate several quarters after political elections. Greater trade and financial integration both increase business cycle correlations, and geographical proximity, property rights and the degree of financial regulation play a role in these co-movements. Our findings therefore demonstrate a more comprehensive link between these factors and business cycle synchronization than prior studies.
