Financing National Health Insurance: Challenge of Fast Population Aging
2013/11/12
研討會日期 : 2013-11-12
時間 : 14:00
主講人 : Profeossor Pei-Ju Liao
地點 : Conference Room B110
演講者簡介 : Professor Liao received her Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at Los Angeles in 2009. She is currently Assistant Research Fellow at Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica. Her research fields are Macroeconomics, Economic Growth.
演講摘要 : This paper studies the impacts of rapid population aging on financing a national health insurance program, as anticipated and observed in many newly industrialized countries (NICs). A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous working/saving decisions is employed to quantify the impacts. Taiwan, which has been implementing its National Health Insurance (NHI) since 1995 and whose old population ratio will double within 20 years, is selected as an example for our analysis. Our results suggest that an additional 10 percent labor tax will be required in 2050 if the current trend of population aging cannot be improved. Moreover, the impact of medical price inflation is also discussed. We find that the NHI would be unsustainable if the annual growth rate of real medical price is 2 percent, on top of productivity growth. Finally, productivity growth and a labor policy are discussed for possible alleviation of the tax burden.
