Demography for Industrial Policy: A Prologue National Transfer Accounts and Human Capital Formation
2005/12/13
研討會日期 : 2005-12-13
時間 : 15:00
主講人 : Prof. Tung, An-Chi
地點 : B棟110室
演講者簡介 : Prof. Tung, An-Chi為Ph.D. in Economics，University of California，Berkeley (1988)。
現為本所副研究員。
其主要研究領域為Development Studies、International Trade、Industrial Policies及Population Economics
演講摘要 : Conventional industrial policy used to work for Taiwan before the recent dual threat: low growth and de-industrialization coupled with low fertility and an aging population. Nothing ranks higher than human capital formation as the determinant for Taiwan’s future economy. Financing it is a key.
............To understand is the basis to act. On who must pay how much to whom, by which channel, the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) forms the clearing house for relevant information. Its framework deserves discussion of some length.
A preliminary review highlights problem areas: shifting population structure pits the very young, with no money nor vote, against the old, with both for resource. Assessing the cohort-specific lifecycle deficit of future Taiwanese requires more than extrapolation. Both the behavior pattern of current America (the cultural magnet) and the trend of expectations of Japan (a Confucian society) raise alarms on financial affordability, and urge the search for higher efficiency.
............Data on cram sessions and crude comparison against figures of Europe and Japan give the first impression that there may be much waste due to “credentialism”: higher income may be supportable with more effective ways of human capital formation.
............This survey highlights both the usefulness of NTA and the overall situation for human capital formation. From then on, different research teams may follow up with in-depth studies.
