Nonlinear Dynamics, Bifurcation, and Macroeconomic Policy
2005/05/31
Date : 2005-05-31
Time : 15:00
Speaker : Prof. William A. Barnett
Venue : B棟110室
Background : Prof. William A. Barnett為Ph.D. ，Carnegie Mellon University (1974)。
現為Oswald Distinguished Professor of Macroeconomics， University of Kansas及Macroeconomic Dynamics編輯。
他的研究領域為涵蓋了Microeconomic Foundations for Macroeconomics and Monetary theory、 Monetary Aggregation Theory、Monetary Asset Demand Modeling、Empirical and Theoretical Consumer Demand Modeling、Applied and Theoretical Econometrics、the Household Production Function Approach、Bayesian and Sampling Theoretic Inference in Infinite Dimensional Parameter Spaces、Semi(non)parametric Inference、Macroeconometrics、Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos及Location of Bifurcation Boundaries in Macroeconomic Models，並已在各期刊、專書發表百餘篇論文。
Abstract : Euler equation models represent an important class of macroeconomic systems. Our ongoing research (He and Barnett (2003)) on the Leeper and Sims (1994) Euler equations macroeconometric model is revealing the existence of singularity-induced bifurcations, when the model’s parameters are within a confidence region about the parameter estimates. Although known to engineers, singularity bifurcation has not previously been seen in the economics literature. Knowledge of the nature of singularity-induced bifurcations is likely to become important in understanding the dynamics of modern macroeconometric models. This paper explains singularity-induced bifurcation, its nature, and its identification and contrasts this class of bifurcations with the more common forms of bifurcation we have previously encountered within the parameter space of the Bergstrom and Wymer (1976) continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK economy. (See, e.g., Barnett and He (1999, 2002)).
