An Economic Theory of World History

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• 研討會日期 : 2005-11-29
• 時間 : 15:00
• 主講人 : Prof. Teng, Jimmy
• 地點 : B棟110室
• 演講者簡介 : Prof. Teng, Jimmy為加拿大University of Toronto大學經濟學博士（1997），美國Duke University政治學博士（2004）。 現為本院政治研究所籌備處助研究員。 其主要研究領域為為政治經濟學、戰爭與國家理論及政治學研究方法論。
• 演講摘要 : This book uses the formal theoretical framework of neoclassical economics to explain the general pattern of world history. Building on research of economists, historians, legal scholars, political scientists and sociologists, the book proposes a theory to explain very long term economic, political, and social changes in world history. Very long term means a few centuries. The theory analyzes how the international contest of military prowess, economic capability and overall national power works as a selection mechanism that prompts the replacement of nonperforming economies and institutions by the efficient ones. The theory analyzes how economies of scale in military and fiscal-economic arenas interact with geography to determine the international political-military environment and how the international environment affects the preference, behavior and economic performance of the constituent states. Under the anarchic condition of international politics, states view their military, economic and overall capability and developmental achievements relatively to that of their rivals or potential rivals. When there are great economies of scale in military and fiscal-economic arenas and a rough parity of capability between the international competitors, intense political-military competition drives states to take their relative military, economic and overall capability seriously. States strive to have good governance. They undertake reforms and innovations in institutions and other areas, and adopt policies for achieving a strong military, prospering economy and rich state. There arises the sustained development of national power and economy. The book then makes use of the theory to explain the general pattern of world history. It first explains the outstanding performance of the Mesopotamian civilization in contrast to the Egyptian one. Then it analyzes how the Middle Eastern leadership in civilization was lost and studies the splendid achievements of classical Greece, China and Ganges India. The exceptional energy of the Indian civilization during the time of the Roman, the Panthian and Sassanid Persian and Han Chinese empires was studied next. The following topic is the cavalry revolution and the ensuing medieval era. Amidst the political fragmentation were the Abbasid Golden Age and the Sung Puzzle of high economic performance. The climax is the rise of the West. The emergence of the gunpowder empires in the early modern era caused the stagnation of the Asian and Middle Eastern civilizations. The gunpowder revolution made the Europe state system more competitive. Competition propelled Europe into the economic, military, political and social transformation that culminated in the European global dominance. The general pattern of world history and major developmental puzzles are thus all explained within the economic framework.