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Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting Euro Lucjan T. Orlowski*


  • 研討會日期 : 2005-01-18
  • 時間 : 15:00
  • 主講人 : Prof. Lucjan T. Orlowski
  • 地點 : B棟110室
  • 演講者簡介 : Prof. Lucjan T. Orlowski為Ph.D. in International Economics,Katowice University of Economics,Poland (1979)。 現為Professor of Economics and International Finance and the Chairman of the Department of Economics and Finance,Sacred Heart University。 其主要領域為Monetary Economics and Stabilization Policies in Transition Economies及Emerging International Financial Markets。
  • 演講摘要 : This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting. It incorporates the objective of lowering exchange rate risk as an indicator variable that is crucial for pursuing effective monetary convergence to the euro. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model