演講摘要 : The objective of this paper is to incorporate the changes in industrial structure into the measurement of TFP growth for an economy. To reevaluate the Krugman-Kim-Lau-Young hypothesis, a comparison with Young (1994b) is also conducted. For this comparison, and also as an example, we employ the data for Taiwan, one of the four NIEs, during the 1961-99 period.
This paper has found that the TFP growth with industrial structure changes adjustment registered 2.03 percent per annum and 2.37 percent per annum during 1961-80 and 1980-99 respectively. In contrast, the TFP growth without industrial structural changes adjustment was 1.55 percent and 2.94 percent per annum. In other words, ignoring the effect of industrial structural changes will underestimated the TFP growth of the whole economy by 23.23 percent, while it will overestimate the TFP growth by 23.94 percent during 1961-80. It is therefore important to consider the effect of industrial structural changes to measure the TFP growth correctly. The factors that explain the effect of industrial structural changes during 1970-99 include government industrial and liberalization policies. This conclusion differs with the argument of Krugman (1994) on the uselessness of industrial policies in the economic development of the NICs. Finally, the Krugman-Kim-Lau-Young ‘input-driven growth’ hypothesis for the NIEs is without basis, not only in this study but also in that of Young (1994b).
